The 2026 fixed-rate cliff, tracked

The 2026 fixed-rate cliff is the wave of around 1.8 million UK fixed-rate mortgages forecast to end this year, many of them taken at low rates and now rolling onto higher ones. With the Bank of England base rate at 3.75% and most borrowers facing either a product transfer or a remortgage, the central risk is payment shock: a step up in monthly cost. Planning a new deal three to six months ahead is the main defence.

Typical fixed rates, September 2026

The Bank of England's average rate on new 2-year fixed mortgages (75% loan to value) was 5.13%, and on 5-year fixed 4.98%, in September 2026. This is the Bank of England's average of the rates lenders quoted that month, not a rate you will be offered: what you are offered depends on your loan to value, fees and lender. Source: Bank of England, Interactive Database.

The verified numbers

Scale of the wave (illustrative)

We do not have a verified published month-by-month split of the 1.8 million figure. To convey the scale only, the table below divides the forecast annual total evenly across the year. These are illustrative figures to show magnitude, not a published monthly or quarterly count.

Period (2026)Illustrative even-spread share
Per quarter (average)about 450,000 deals
Per month (average)about 150,000 deals
Full year (verified total)around 1,800,000 deals

Only the full-year total is a published figure (UK Finance). The per-quarter and per-month rows are an even-spread illustration to show scale, not actual monthly data.

What it means for you

If your fix was below today's rates, coming off it usually means a higher payment. The size of the jump depends on your balance, your remaining term and the rate you move to. Rather than rely on averages, work out your own figure with the payment-shock calculator, then decide how to act using should you switch or stay.

Common questions

What is the fixed-rate cliff?

It is the wave of fixed-rate mortgages reaching the end of their deal in a concentrated period. Because many borrowers fixed at low rates a few years ago, a large number now roll off onto today's higher rates at once, which can mean a noticeable jump in monthly payments.

How many mortgages end in 2026?

UK Finance forecast in December 2025 that around 1.8 million fixed-rate deals would end in 2026. That is why 2026 is described as a cliff: the volume of households facing a remortgage or product-transfer decision is unusually high.

Will my payments definitely go up?

Not always, but often. If your old fixed rate was below today's rates, your new payment is likely higher. How much depends on your balance, remaining term and the new rate. The payment-shock calculator gives you a personal figure rather than a headline.

What can I do about it?

Plan ahead. Arrange a new deal three to six months before your fix ends so you skip the standard variable rate, compare staying with your lender against remortgaging, and get the timing right. The remortgage section walks through each option.

Adam Parker

Adam Parker

Founder, MortgageExplained

Adam spent over eight years as a mortgage adviser at Just Mortgages, with further experience in commercial finance. He is CeMAP and CF qualified. He built MortgageExplained to do one thing well: explain mortgages in plain English, so you know where you stand before you speak to a regulated broker. Every page on the site is written by Adam.

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